Economic Impact of Coral Cover Loss

Projected loss of reef-associated tourism value under climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 & 8.5) through 2100 via linear, compound, and ecosystem tipping point economic depreciation models.

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Scenario Comparison

Annual value loss at endpoint by scenario and model

Cumulative Impact Over Time

Economic losses over time by scenario and model

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Reef Value Loss by Location

Point-by-point visualization of projected economic impact

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Coral Cover Trajectories

Projected global average coral cover under different scenarios (same for all models)

Interpolation:

Note: Coral cover trajectories are the same across economic models - only the scenario (RCP) and interpolation method affect coral cover projections.

Annual Economic Value

Projected tourism value over time by depreciation model

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Cumulative Losses

Cumulative sum of opportunity cost (baseline revenue lost after collapse)

Country-Level Impact

Projected value loss by country

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Scenario Comparison by GDP Impact

Side-by-side comparison of all scenarios

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RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
2050 (lighter)
2100 (darker)

Depreciation Model Comparison

How economic value changes with coral cover loss

Model Descriptions

Linear Model (3.81%/pp)

Economic value decreases by 3.81% for each percentage point decrease in coral cover. Based on Chen et al. (2014).

Compound Model (3.81%/pp)

Value decreases compound with each percentage point of cover loss. Remaining value = Vβ‚€ Γ— (1 - 0.0381)^|Ξ”cover|

Tipping Point Model

Models ecosystem collapse: gradual depreciation (3.81%/pp) until coral cover falls below 10%, then catastrophic loss (90% of remaining value). The tipping point depends on initial coral cover.